COVID-19 has become the source of almost all news headlines, leading news stories, media opinion pieces and political posturing. That’s mainly because of the speed and severity of its global spread, its sudden negative impact on business activity, household spending and economic growth in the world’s second biggest economy (China) and the threat of the same negative economic and political impact on many other economies. It has become the number one geopolitical worry. However, other worries and hot spots continue to fester.
The US is about to send an aircraft carrier to Vietnam. The last such official US aircraft carrier visit Vietnam was two years ago and the one before that was in 1975. Also, over the last two or so years, the US has also increased its naval and air force presence in South East Asia in general and the South China Sea in particular. Vietnam is one of several South-East Asian countries who are in dispute with China over ownership or sovereignty of parts of the South China Sea.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued a report that suggests that Iran has enough enriched uranium to produce a single nuclear weapon. However, the IAEA believes that it would take Iran months or years to manufacture a warhead capable of delivering it over long distances.
Lebanon has announced that it will default on a USD1.2 billion bond payment this week – it’s first ever default on a foreign debt obligation. According to the Lebanese Prime Minister, the country’s “debt has become bigger than Lebanon can bear, and bigger than the ability of the Lebanese to meet interest payments.” Lebanese businesses are closing, people are losing jobs, inflation is soaring and (business, consumer and political) confidence is falling. The Middle East does not need another economically and politically unstable nation.
Meanwhile other struggles (political, economic, structural whether internally or with another country) continue or are intensifying in Israel, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Russia, India, Kashmir, Pakistan, Malaysia and various Latin American and African countries.
The Economic Butterfly Effect 