Never poke an eagle or a (panda) bear
An increasingly relevant sideshow to the effects of, fight against and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is the November US Presidential election. Donald Trump has begun his re-election campaign using many of the same themes and ‘tools’ that got him elected in 2016, mainly bluster, bullying (anyone who disagrees with or argues against him), isolationism and consistent selection and redefining of facts and the truth. As a result, the US is facing the erosion of its status as the global superpower.
China seems to be taking the opportunity presented by Trump’s bluster, poor judgement, lack of leadership and isolationist moves to fill the global leadership gap left by the US, to show the world that China is the equal of (or greater than) the US as a global superpower and to tidy up what it sees as domestic matters. The World Health Organisation is just one battlefield between the US and China.
China is quietly but assertively absorbing the Trump Administration’s anti-China vitriol. At the same time, it is escalating the addressing of longstanding domestic matters, such as the integration of Hong Kong into the People’s Republic of China, the security of shipping lanes in the South China Sea (the recent sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat), the security of its land borders (the escalating stand off on the India-China border) and the safety of its citizens overseas (China’s actions in response to the extradition proceedings of the Huawei CFO who is also the daughter of its founder).
The US and China, in attacking each other and the other’s perceived allies, in their battle to be the world’s biggest geopolitical influencer, risk spreading their animosity throughout the world. Rising tensions between the US and China have the potential to inflame and divide the world, with serious geopolitical, economic and military consequences for everyone, more so in this fragile coronavirus period.